This weekend sees Southampton travel to the North to bounce back against a Burnley side who are as strong at home as they are so desperately poor away.
Coming back from the dead
December started and ended brutally for Claude Puel’s Southampton; the beginning of the month saw them crash out of their Europa league group, the end saw 3 consecutive league defeats in 7 days. Some are pointing to Southampton as an example of a victim of the packed Premier League Christmas scheduling, and it’s easy to sympathise with those claims. Fortune favours the bold, however, and Southampton will have to return to form immediately if they want to keep pace with their rivals for the Europa league spots.
The Saints won the corresponding fixture 3:1 in October, and the only other previous meeting between these two in the top flight was in the 2014/15 season, which saw both teams winning at home.
Puel has a few injuries to add to the general squad fatigue. The long-term absences of Austin, Pied and Targett are compounded by the doubt around McCarthy and Boufal, with Martina and Soares who potentially lack match fitness. They also have a midweek EFL Semi Final against Liverpool which could easily exacerbate their existing fitness problems.
A tale of two seasons
It is hard to think of another team in the Prem whose season can be so starkly divided as Burnley; their home form would put them sixth, having only dropped points in 4 games and have 7 home wins at Turf Moor, while their away form would put them bottom of the table, with 1 solitary point from 9 games. Currently 12th, Burnley are only one point behind Southampton, and a win on Saturday would see them leapfrog them by two points. Considering their poor away record, it’s a bit of a push to start thinking about Burnley competing for 7th place, but a victory here against an immediate rival could galvanise them into something truly surprising. A continuation of their great home form will be vital to consolidating or improving on their current position come May. They will go into this game looking for strategic points against a demoralised rival, confident of their ability to win.
In contrast to their opponents, Burnley’s festive fixtures proved fruitful, giving them 6 points from 9, including a 4:1 thumping of Sunderland and a spirited 2:1 defeat to Man City. Sean Dyche will certainly be thankful for a more forgiving schedule than Southampton, but his squad isn’t without injury concerns: Gudmundsson, Bamford and Arnfield are all definitely out, and there is concern for Flanagan and Boyd.
The value
Bookies are favouring Southampton for the win here, with Bet 365 having Southampton at 11/10, Burnley and Draw are both at 12/5. These odds seem pretty tasty, and with Burnley Double Chance at 3/4, going with the home side could be profitable, if a bit risky. Southampton is a very capable on their day, but considering Burnley’s home form, and the fact they have had a 7-day break (compared with Southampton’s 3 days) suggest that it might be worth going with the outsider.
Looking at the goals market, Under 2.5 goal is backed by the bookies, at 8/13 with Bet Victor. Southampton does statistically favour Under, and Burnley goes either way. However, Southampton’s last 5 games in all competitions have gone Over 2.5. I would definitely consider putting a small stake on Burnley to Win & Over 2.5.
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