Category: Golf

World’s Best Golfers Switch to Match Play in Texas

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We’re lucky to get one of the most exciting events on tour this week as the format switches to match play. Match play brings out the best (and worst) of some players and the unpredictability will make it a fascinating watch.

The Course

Overlooking Lake Austin, the Austin Country Club in Texas is a 7,073 yard, par 71 challenge founded in 1899 (though the course has moved a couple of times since then). The course mixes lowlands and highlands, making it relatively unique for the state and a challenge for players. Aggressive play here can be rewarded (see Rory McIlroy’s highlights from last year), but can also be severely penalised with the closely mown catchment areas around the greens and multiple hazards.

The Defending Champion

Jason Day backed up a win a week earlier at the Arnold Palmer by winning the 2016 matchplay edition and climb to the top of the world golf rankings. Jason Day got through his group that included Graeme McDowell, Thongchai Jade and Paul Casey, before defeating Brandt Snedeker, Brooks Koepka, and McIlroy in the knockout stages. His match against McIlroy was an instant classic which Day took out with a 12-foot par putt on the final hole.

In the final, he beat South Africa’s Louis Oosthuizen by 5&4, capping off an incredible effort against the toughest field in golf. We don’t think Day is good value this year. He’s at $17 but has too little competitive golf under his belt to go all the way this week.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $9

After winning his last two starts at the Genesis Open and the WGC Mexico Championship, he’s trying to become first to win three consecutive starts since Rory McIlroy in 2014. Huge chance to win back to back WGCs.

Rory McIlroy $8

A beaten semi-finalist last year and a massive matchplay threat. Thrives in the format and his Ryder Cup singles match against Patrick Reed will go down as one of the greatest matches in the history of the format. Fourth last week.

Louis Oosthuizen $56

Match play specialist Oosthuizen has warmed up for the event with 3rd at the Waste Management Open. A top five in the ISPS Handa World Super 6 and a top ten at the Nedbank in South Africa round off a well-travelled, high performing last few months.

Patrick Reed $41

In horrible form this year, with just one top ten and lying a lowly 75th in the FedEx Cup, but is a true competitor in the match play format and it could bring out the best in him. Round of 16 last year before losing to DJ.

An Byeong-Hun $111

A slightly left-field tip is the South Korean 25-year old An Byeong-Hun who made the last 16 before succumbing to injury and conceding to Cabrera-Bello. Not enjoying the best season on TOUR this year, but could get through a group that features, like he did last year.

*Odds from Bet365.

The Winner

Hard to choose between McIlroy and Dustin Johnson, the huge hitters that intimidate others with their length. But we’ll go McIlroy again this week – just a little better in facets of the game that don’t involve the driver.

Rory the Favourite at Special Arnold Palmer Invitational

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The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes on special meaning this year without the King to preside over his beloved tournament. The King, Arnold Palmer, passed away in September, and the undeniable mark he left on the game of golf and this tournament will be sorely felt this year. Lots of players have returned to Bay Hill to pay their tributes this week adding to a high-quality field.

The Course

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a 7,419 yard, par 72 rustic course in Orlando, Florida. It’s been a regular stop on the PGA Tour since 1979 and over time has changed drastically since Palmer took over the ownership of it and made it his own. Widely known for its closing stretch of three holes and hole number 6 where John Daly once recorded an 18. The closing three holes should bring the bulk of the drama, though pure ball strikers should come to the fore.

The Defending Champion

Australian Jason Day battled his swing all day in the final round here last year but still did enough to beat Kevin Chappell down the last. It took a sensational up and down from the green side bunker and a final round 70 to win by one. Day was out of the blocks early with a 66-65 opening two rounds but slowed over the weekend with matching 70s.

The Contenders*

Rory McIlroy $8

McIlroy’s been short of golf this season, choosing his tournaments carefully, but he’s always supported this event. Returned from an injury in Mexico and finished tied for 7th. Strong chance.

Jason Day $15

The defending champion has also been out of action recently with illness and injury. It shouldn’t affect him too much as he’s always bounced back strongly when returning to competition. Won’t repeat wire to wire, but might come into his own during the weekend.

Henrik Stenson $9

An amazingly consistent player that is in form and awesome at Bay Hill (T8-T5-2nd-T3 since 2013). Ran out of steam when he looked a chance last week, but leading ball striking stats all over the show.

Tommy Fleetwood $51

Solo second at the WGC in Mexico (his first start on TOUR this year) followed a win in Dubai earlier in the year. A good chance here on account of his tremendous scrambling ability.

Francesco Molinari $46

We tipped him a couple of weeks ago and he let us down but has an amazing Bay Hill record that we can’t ignore. Top 20s in seven of his last eight starts (since October) and in each of the last three editions of the API.

Thomas Pieters $34

The Ryder Cup star has shown promise this year as he dedicates more time to the US. Was last here in 2016 (of those that made the cut). A concern over his putting on Bermuda, but was tied for second at the Honda Classic a while back.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Fleetwood, Francisco and Fowler (who we didn’t feature but is obviously an option) are all chances, but we like Rory to win.

World’s Best Take on Tricky Tree-Lined Track in WGC

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Regular readers of our weekly golf preview will have noticed we achieved our second win of the season last week after correctly tipping Rickie Fowler to win the Honda Classic. While the prediction didn’t exactly involve us sticking our neck outs, it did feature three other players that finished in the top 25. Further reinforcing that the players highlighted below are not only great tips for the win, but also other bets on top 10s and top 25s when available.

With that in mind, here’s who we’re looking at this week:

The Course

For once, a course hosting a WGC has some truly unique characteristics. Club de Golf Chapultepec, in the mountains of Mexico City, offers challenges in altitude, unfamiliar greens and plenty of trees. The trees are probably the most talked about feature of the course ahead of this week’s World Golf Championship event.

The retro tree-lined layout isn’t long, but most of the pros are going to have to leave the driver in the bag as they navigate their way through the trees. The course is officially listed at 7,330 yards, however, when considering the appreciable distance a course at altitude can add to distances achieved, it is likely to play closer to 6000-6500 yards.

The course, which has been used in the past to host the Mexico Open (only one player in the field, Robert Diaz, played in the last edition of that event in 2014), will provide plenty of birdie opportunities if the players can keep it away from the impenetrably thick trees and out of the rough (despite the rough only being at 2inches). Expect to see lots of 2-irons and other safety players from the World’s best.

The Defending Champion

Adam Scott won the event, then hosted at Doral, by beating third-round leader Rory McIlroy in a rollercoaster final round. Scott had won the week before in the Honda Classic, surviving a quadruple bogey on Saturday to remind the Tour he’s good no matter what sort of putter he uses (this was shortly after the anchored putter ban).

At Doral, Scott started the day three shots back of Rory, hit two balls in the water, made two double bogeys, and still won. Another great escape effort that saw him become only the second player to win back to back titles on the Florida Swing (the other, Tiger Woods). Those early bogeys put him six behind after six holes, but the Australian played his final 13 holes in six under par to outclass the field.

He’s at $26 to defend this week, but we think he’s better suited to a top 10 bet.

The Contenders*

Dustin Johnson $7.50

This is the first time Johnson tees up as the World number one. Johnson’s imperious driver won’t get much of a workout but it might not matter. He ranks third on Tour for greens-in-regulation (GIR) and while some of that is down to hitting wedge into every green, it also points to a deadly accurate iron game no matter what the club. Reports suggest he’s hit the 2-iron well here during the practice rounds. Won three WGCs.

Jordan Spieth $9

Leading the Tour in GIR and posting top 10s all over the place. His worldwide streak of five in a row ended with a tie for 22nd at Riviera, however, he still looks ominous on a course that won’t see his lack of length disadvantage him.

Rickie Fowler $21

Coming off a win at the Honda Classic, Rickie is in hot form. Leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance, which isn’t a stat that comes into play on a course that will give up a lot of birdies, but outlines his how pure ball striking ability and impressive short game. An okay record at altitude, with a tie for 4th at the 2014 BMW Championship.

Henrik Stenson $13

A beautiful iron manipulator, Stenson’s struggled with injury woes but is still stringing together performances wherever he plays, including finishing second in his last tournament in Dubai. Four WGC top 5s, no wins.

Jon Rahm $29

A debutante this week in WGC events who won’t be phased by the calibre of the field. Coming off a win at Torrey Pines and a T16 at the Waste Management and T5 at Pebble Beach. Priced attractively.

Tyrell Hatton $51

Hatton continues to post top-10s like they’re going out of fashion. After contending at nearly every event on the European Tour, Hatton ventured over to the Honda Classic at PGA National and finished 4th. Featured in the final group with Fowler, but let his best golf get away from him. Would’ve taken lots away from it, including a huge injection of belief.

Francesco Molinari $67

Our outsider for the week is the Italian maestro, Francesco Molinari. Often out-powered by the bigger hitters, he thrives on smaller setups where straight is required and could surprise this week. Won the 2010 WGC in Shanghai and finished 3rd at the 2011 WGC-Cadillac event.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

This is tricky when the World’s top 50 are all available and the odds are accordingly low. We’ll take a punt on Hatton in a bid to go back to back on correct predictions.

Scott to Defend Honda Classic Title on Tour’s Toughest Course

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Golf has welcomed a new number one player in the world ahead of the Honda Classic beginning Friday. Dustin Johnson has scaled to the summit of golf and confirmed his status as the form player on the globe (along with Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama) with a win last week at the Genesis Open.

And chasing him is a group of accomplished players who next get a chance to catch him in the Honda Classic hosted at PGA National (Champion). That group includes players in the field, like Justin Thomas and Rickie Fowler. See who else might contend at this week’s PGA Tour stop below:

The Course

PGA National (Champion) is widely regarded as one of the toughest challenges in golf. The Champion features the infamous Bear Trap, a series of three holes (15,16,17) designs by Jack Nicklaus, and like the entire course often described as one of the toughest stretches in golf. The stretch that Nicklaus once said could stand the test of time even if golf balls were developed that could travel 1000 yards, often makes or breaks the leading pack – “there are no bailouts”, as Tiger Woods also commented.

The original Tom and George Fazio design was re-designed by Nicklaus in 2014, and it hosts the Honda Classic every year. The Champion features generous landing areas and some of the biggest TifEagle Bermuda greens on the circuit, however, there is a premium on accuracy in all areas of the game.

Playing 7140 yards, the course played the toughest during the 2013 PGA Tour season, proving the tremendous challenge golfers will face this week.

The Defending Champion

Last year, Australia’s Adam Scott outlasted Spaniard, Sergio Garcia to win by one stroke, after the pair were tied for the lead after round 3. Scott, one of the best ball strikers in the game, but the poster child for the broomstick putter anchor ban, won with a final round 70. His margin would’ve been significantly bigger had it not been for a quadruple bogey 7 on the par-3 15th during the third round.

Scott’s win was built around his ball striking (1st in greens in regulations and 10th in driving accuracy) as well as a fine performance with the shorter putter (23rd in strokes gained putting), in an indication of the sort of performance needed to win at The Champion course.

Following Garcia was Blayne Barber, Justin Thomas, Graeme McDowell and Rickie Fowler. The defending champion is at $13 to defend his title and coming off a tie for 11th last week.

The Contenders*

Rickie Fowler $17

Rickie led the Honda Classic last year at the halfway stage before drifting badly over the weekend to finish 6th. In addition to his 6th place last year, he also finished 7th here in 2012, proving a liking to the course. Rickie has a tendency to do well on the same courses time and time again. Like Sawgrass and like the Waste Management in Phoenix (where he’s gone 2, 4th over the last two years), so it won’t be a surprise if he features again this week.

Sergio Garcia $17

Sergio was off last week despite being tipped by a lot of analysts to do well. However, despite a disappointing 49th, mainly on the back of an inconsistent putting display, he still struck the ball well and had good GIR stats. Including his win in Dubai, he’s ranked 3rd, 21st, 4th, 1st and seventh for GIR in his last five starts. Ball strikers are rewarded here, so don’t discount.

Justin Thomas $19

After a Hawaiian holiday to remember – wins in the Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open – Thomas has gone cold. He missed the cut at the Waste Management and was 39th last week at Riviera, but we prefer to use his Sony Open success as a guide for a strong performance here rather than recent form. If his putter gets a bit warmer, he could go well here as the rest of the game seems on point.

Ollie Schniederjans $67

The talented youngster is finally starting to deliver the results week in, week out that his amateur career promised. A tie for 8th last week was his third top ten of the season and positions him nicely at 35th on the FedEx Cup standings. The form is attributed to reverting back to a lower ball flight, something that won’t hinder him on The Champion course.

Tyrell Hatton $31

Hatton is a superstar in the making. After picking up his first European Tour win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in October, Hatton hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 in any event he’s played. Success in the US won’t come immediately, so he’s still probably an outsider, but a name to keep an eye out on the leaderboard and in the future.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Zach Johnson and Jimmy Walker not featured above are also contenders, but we like Fowler. He’s the freshest in the field after missing last week and very consistent on his favourite courses.

Strong Field for AT & T at Pebble Beach

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The field for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am, this week’s PGA Tour stop will be thanking their lucky stars that Hideke Matsuyama isn’t lining up alongside them. The red-hot Japanese pro won again in Phoenix last week to underline his credentials as the form player on Tour. His absence gives the host of big names a chance to claim some silverware and valuable FedEx Cup points, but it won’t be easy given the quality of golfers on display.

Take a look at the players in the field to watch and our tip for the winner in this week’s PGA Tour preview of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

The Course

The Pro Am features a slightly unusual format with a third round cut line. Each player plays Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course, before those who progress enjoy the splendid Pebble beach for a second time.

The course is one of immaculate beauty. It’s ranked the number one public course in the US because of its spectacular views of the coastline, cliffs and ocean. Pebble Beach has hosted the US Open on multiple occasions and is best known for its tiny greens.

While none of the courses play long, they will provide an ample challenge in conditions where the ball won’t carry as far. Keep in mind, that with less carry, longer hitters might prevail, doubly so for those with great short games too as it will be impossible to maintain a high GIR percentage this week.

The Defending Champion

Vaughn Taylor shocked everyone last year by recording his first win in 11 years; defeating third-round leader Phil Mickelson, a guy that plays unbelievably well at Pebble Beach. Taylor posted a final round 65 before watching Phil miss a very makable five-footer for birdie on the last. At one stage Taylor was six shots off Mickelson’s lead.

Two Swedes’, Jones Blixt and Freddie Jacobson finished 3rd and 4th respectively to close out last year’s top four.

The Contenders*

Phil Mickelson $23

Four-time winner of the tournament and one that has featured (rightly so) in a number of our contender lists over the last month. Runner-up last year (as above) and in decent form – definitely worth considering.

Jason Day $13

A little bit of doubt surrounds his body as he looks to bounce back from a missed cut at Torrey Pines in his last start. Hopefully, his poor last outing can be put down to Tiger’s presence/funk and he brings the game that has seen him record three top 10s here in the past.

Justin Rose $15

Rose was tied 6th here last year and has been hanging around the leaderboard in his two starts this year (2nd in Hawaii and 4th in the Farmers Insurance Open. A great look if his back is healthy.

Dustin Johnson $9

Also looking to bounce back after playing with Tiger a fortnight ago. Johnson has a curious record in the AT&T; two wins and another four top 10s scattered amongst 3 missed cuts. A course that will certainly suit his length.

Jordan Spieth $10

Quietly putting together a nice start to the season ahead of April’s trip to Augusta. Spieth has had four top tens in his last four events and has never missed a cut here.

Jon Rahm $23

The young Spaniard continues to play a full calendar despite enjoying a breakthrough win only a couple of weeks ago. Rahm hasn’t played in the tournament before, but if he can close out a tournament with a 60ft eagle putt he can pretty much do anything.

If nothing takes your fancy above, consider Patrick Reed ($29), J.B. Holmes ($41) or J.J Spaun ($67) as the next best options.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Phil’s form and history will likely lead to the left-hander being the favourite in most circles. For that reason, we’ll include him here with a strong feeling that Spaun could do something great too.

Michelson Uncertain but Field Still Strong for CareerBuilder Challenge

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Most golfing eyes will be on Abu Dhabi this week as the biggest names tee off in the European Tour. All the other golfing eyes are still probably stretched apart in shock still, reeling at the impressive Justin Thomas and his dismantling of Hawaiian golf courses and fellow PGA Tour pros over the last two weeks.

If you can look away from the European action for a second, or recover from the surprise of Thomas, the CareerBuilder Challenge still has an excellent field to follow. Let’s check out the key talking points from this week’s PGA Tour action:

The Course

The PGA West TPC Stadium course is an absolute brute. Long, difficult and once described by golf columnist Jim Murray as needing “a camel, a canoe, a priest and a tourniquet to get through”. The Pete Dye-designed golf course is over 7300 yards from the championship tees and is often ranked as one of the best courses in America. It often also features in lists of the most difficult courses in America. A stadium course because of the naturally sculpted spectator seating, the course is used to grandstand finishes as the venue for PGA Tour qualifying school tournaments every other year. The reason for the excitement? The island green on the 17th, nicknamed Alcatraz, and the difficult water-logged 18th.

The event’s pro-am format also will utilise PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament course (7,159/72) and La Quinta Country Club (7,060/72) in the first three rounds.

The Defending Champion

Jason Dufner ended a victory drought of nearly 2 ½ years and notched his fourth career victory (and first since winning his sole major at the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill) when he won here last year. His win is largely remembered for the miraculous par he made on 17, known now as an escape from Alcatraz.

Dufner tugged his 8-iron right and instead of having his ball bounce hard off the rocks protecting the green, his ball nestled into a sandy area from which he was able to save par from (almost made two as his chip shot lipped out).

In the end, Dufner won on the second playoff hole, beating Sweden’s David Lingmerth who caught a bad break on the second playoff hole. Dufner’s at $34 to go back-to-back.

The Contenders*

Phil Mickelson $21

Lefty makes his traditional start of the year after a three-month layoff. Phil’s last tournament was the Safeway Open in October, where he earned a share of eighth. Mickelson has both familiarity and history on his side at this course, he’s won the tournament twice and he managed to tie for third here last year. He looks a great option in a relatively weak field. Note, Phil is still recovering from a sports hernia injury and could be in doubt to tee up.

Patrick Reed $12

Reed hasn’t hit anywhere near the form that made him become a Ryder Cup icon late last year – quite simply the putts have stopped rolling in for the feisty American. However, he’s still a threat at a tournament he’s won before (in 2014). Shared sixth place at Kapalua recently despite admitting to feeling “80 percent” after a recent illness.

Hudson Swafford $54

Tied for 13th last week after an opening 62 but a disappointing closing 71. Hits it long and has a nice touch to be able to cope with less than perfect ball striking. Hasn’t missed a cut this season and seems to be popping up on the first page of the leaderboard more often than not recently.

Zach Johnson $21

A 61 in the second round in Hawaii showed he’s on the right track, where he ultimately finished 6th. Johnson has four top-25 finishes in the tournament amongst two missed cuts. Doesn’t need much to get himself going, so his inclusion here is essentially down to the confidence boosting 61 at the Sony Open.

Bill Haas $21

A compelling record at the CareerBuilder, two-time champion (2010, 2015) and the tournament’s all-time money leader, puts Haas near the top of the rankings this week. Boasts an unbelievable thirty-nine consecutive red numbers here since 2008. Record here is also well supported by his start to the season that has seen him go T20-T4-T13-T13.Ready to win this week – a big chance.

Jaime Lovemark $34

Lovemark has picked up in 2017 where he left off in 2016. A tie of fourth last week at Sony followed up a tie for 6th in the RSM late last year. Was leading this tournament last year after round two (ultimately finishing 6th) but has become a much more complete golfer since then. Good all round game suited to the new layout of the CareerBuilder.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

We really like Haas this week. An exemplary record at the CareerBuilder and despite a change in venue has the consistency behind him this season to manage the unsettling layout changes.