Patriots and Raiders battling it out for AFC top spot

The final chapter in the regular NFL season begins on New Year’s Day and fans can look forward to an action-packed schedule full of intrigue. In the AFC the New England Patriots and the Oakland Raiders are locked in a fierce battle to emerge as number one seed and enjoy the home-field advantage that comes with it. If New England beat the Miami Dolphins, they will clinch that valuable status, but it will be easier said than done. The Raiders travel to the Denver Broncos, knowing they could end up as number one seed or fall to number five, so that is another crucial game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are on a six-game winning streak and have the best record in the league, leading the bookmakers to install them as favourites for the Super Bowl. William Hill has the best price, 15/8, with the Cowboys back on 4/1. New England is huge favourites to win the AFC, odds-on with all bookmakers, with 8/11 about the best price you can find with the likes of Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes. But the path to the Super Bowl will be made a lot easier for them if they earn top seed spot. Last season they blew number one spot with back-to-back losses in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins. The result was a tricky playoff schedule that saw them crash out to eventual Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos.

They will be desperate to not make the same mistake this season and they know that a win over the Dolphins in their final game will clinch it. The Dolphins laboured badly against the Buffalo Bills in their last game but won it in overtime to secure a playoff berth. They are currently sixth seeds and will face the most difficult schedule, but if they win and the Chiefs lose, they move up to fifth and will avoid the Steelers in the playoffs, securing an easier tie against the Texans. They will be well up for this game, and it should prove to be a thriller. Many expect it to be close, but Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore is likely to struggle against the Pats’ outstanding defence, and New England can cover a -7 spread at 8/13 with Sky Bet after easily covering a record spread against the Jets last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are in the postseason for the first time since 2002 and went 12-3 with a 33-25 win over the Colts in week 16, but it came at a huge cost. Derek Carr’s broken fibula is a brutal blow for Oakland fans, who have waited so long for a return to the playoffs and rightly had Super Bowl dreams with Carr leading the charge. Now they have to make do with fourth-year pro Matt McGloin as his replacement and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl went out sharply. They are now as long as 28/1 to win it with Ladbrokes and nobody is giving them much of a chance. But a win at the already eliminated Broncos, whose Super Bowl defence went out with a whimper with a 33-10 defeat in Kansas City, would give McGloin confidence, and it is essential for the Raiders to get the win as the Chiefs are still in with a great chance of pipping them to the AFC West. William Hill has 4/5 on them covering a -3 spread and that looks a good bet as the Broncos are on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly.

NFC Conference: Giants and Packers look like good outside bets

The race to reach the playoffs is heating up, with just two games to play and several spots still up for grabs. In the NFC, the Cowboys and the Seahawks have already made it through, while the Giants look good for a wildcard spot. The second wildcard spot will either come from the NFC North or NFC South, divisions in which it looks set to go down to the wire. The Lions, Packers, Falcons and Buccaneers are now essentially fighting it out for the final three NFC playoff places, although the Vikings and Redskins also have an outside chance. There are several exciting games to look forward to and plenty of good value for punters in week 16.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

The early game next weekend sees the Giants travel to Philadelphia, and they will be buoyed by a two-game winning streak built on a truly formidable defence. They have gone 27 drives without yielding a single touchdown, including an entire game against the Dallas Cowboys, who are second favourites to win the Super Bowl. They were superb in beating the Lions 17-6 last weekend and Odell Beckham Jr looked unplayable at times, capping a great performance with a one-handed touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia has lost five in a row and threw it away against the Ravens last weekend by going for a two-point conversion right at the death, a plan that failed. They are done for the season and should have no chance against the Giants, who should cover a -3 spread, with Paddy Power offering a generous 21/20 on this.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The Packers are the form team of the conference at the moment, on a four-game winning streak that has taken them to within a game of the Lions at the top of the NFC North. The Lions were tamed by the Giants last time out to leave them 9-5, while the Vikings have gone from 4-6 to 8-6 to leave them looking good either to win the division or claim a wildcard spot. The Vikings are third in the division at 7-7 and have a slim chance of making the postseason, but the Packers can put an end to that by beating them here, and home advantage should help them prevail. Green Bay are on fire at the moment and are just 2/7 to win this with Sky Bet, so for more value back them to cover a -7 spread, with Paddy Power again offering the best price, 21/20.

NFC outrights

The Dallas Cowboys are deservedly favourites to win the conference (they are second favourites to win the Super Bowl after the New England Patriots) at 6/4 with William Hill and Coral as they have the best record in the NFC and will enjoy a bye to the Divisional Round, where they will have home advantage. But the NFC is not as clear cut as the AFC, where the Patriots are head and shoulders above the rest and expected to walk it. The Giants have the second-best record in the conference, but it is their misfortune to be in the same division as the Cowboys, so they look destined for a wildcard spot and will have to do it the hard way. But their recent back to back wins over the Cowboys and the Lions will give them confidence and they look a great bet at 12/1 with William Hill. The Seahawks, 5/2 with Coral, are in with a shout, as are the Falcons (9/1 with William Hill), but the Packers have hit form at just the right time and look a really good outside bet at 9/1 with Coral and Paddy Power. You could spread your stake between the Giants and Packers and be in with a great chance of making a profit.