Champions League Preview – April 21st

The Champions League semi-finalists are to be decided this week. On Tuesday night, Barcelona should ease past PSG with a comfortable 3-1 lead from the away leg but Bayern Munich face an uphill struggle to reach the last four.

The Germans went into the away leg missing several key players and were beaten 3-1. They welcome back Xabi Alonso, Thiago Alcântara, Jérôme Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm for the return leg. They will still be without Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and that could be vital. Despite their fine display in the first leg, Porto can still be backed at close to even money to go through.

I don’t there are any Premiership sides that would be odds-on to overturn such a deficit but Bayern are dominant in the Bundesliga. They are twelve points clear of Wolfsburg and were elevated to Champions League favourites after beating Shakhtar 7-0. Pep Guardiola’s side have a true Champions League pedigree but Porto may still be under-estimated. Julen Lopetegui’s side can be dangerous on the break with Jackson Martinez and Ricardo Quaresma and they could be the value bet.

Barcelona have a much easier task at home to PSG after running rings around them in Paris. In fact, Luis Suarez did precisely that to David Luiz on two occasions. The £50million former Chelsea centre-back must have thought his nightmare was over after that World Cup humiliation against Germany. With Thiago Silva out through injury, Luiz could be left exposed on Tuesday night and it would be no surprise to see Barcelona ease to a comfortable victory.

The French champions do have Zlatan Ibrahimovic back in the side but they were very fortunate to get past a lack-lustre Chelsea in the last round and they simply don’t look good enough. Laurent Blanc has to try to formulate a plan for this match but I cannot see them going out to attack. I believe that they will try to stay in the tie in the first half before searching for a lifeline goal after the break. Barring a sending-off for the home side, this looks like a formality for the Spaniards to book their place in the last four.

Porto to qualify @10-11 Coral

Ricardo Quaresma to score at any time @7-1 Betfair

Luis Suarez to score and Barcelona win @6-4 Paddy Power

Lionel Messi to score and Barcelona win @10-11 Ladbrokes

Barcelona to win by 2 goals @10-3 Bet365

Champions League – Quarter-final draw and odds update

In our September Champions League preview we recommended Atletico Madrid (25-1) and PSG (16-1) as the value bets in this season’s competition. Both sides have made it safely through to the last eight but the draw has not been kind.

Atletico Madrid gave us a tremendous run for  our money last season in reaching the final before losing in extra-time to rivals Real. They face Ronaldo and co again in the two-legged quarter-final but will be more than hopeful of causing an upset this time.

Diego Simeone’s side have beaten the reigning champions twice in the league and knocked them out of the Copa del Rey this season. That surely entitles them to some respect here but the bookmakers have them at a top price 18-1 to lift the trophy. Anyone who saw Real Madrid scrape past Roberto di Matteo’s Schalke in that astonishing second leg match will regard the champions as suspect. Their price has eased to 9-2 third favourite in the wake of that display and a defeat against Barcelona at the weekend has dented their domestic league prospects.

Ronaldo has already dragged them through a few tricky matches this season and he will be the main threat to Atletico but it should be a fascinating tie.

PSG were extremely fortunate to get past Chelsea who were guilty of sitting back against ten men in the hope of seeing out time. I am always happy to praise Jose Mourinho for his tactical genius but he failed to galvanise his troops that day. Credit to PSG for hanging on long enough to get a result but I can see why they are a longer price now than they were back in September.

As well as their average form, there is the little matter of Barcelona to overcome in the last eight. The Spaniards saw off Man City and would have run up a cricket score but for Joe Hart’s brilliance between the posts.

Bayern Munich have emerged as the new favourites and they face Porto while Juventus face Arsenal’s conqueror’s, Monaco. The Gunners came close to turning around a 3-1 deficit and Monaco were on the ropes for almost 90 minutes. Few will be rushing out to take the Coral price of 80-1. Juventus are in to 8-1 after thrashing Borussia Dortmund and could be this year’s surprise package.

Best odds

Bayern Munich 13-8 Ladbrokes

Barcelona 28-11 Unibet

Real Madrid 9-2 Ladbrokes

Juventus 8-1 Ladbrokes

Atletico Madrid 18-1 Boylesports

PSG 20-1 Paddy Power

Porto 80-1 Coral

Monaco 80-1 Coral

1/3 odds, 1,2

Quarter-finals to be played April 14th, 15th, 21st, 22nd

PSG to grab first-leg lead over Chelsea

Premiership leaders Chelsea renew rivalry with Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16 of the Champions League on Tuesday night. The two sides met in the quarter-finals last year with PSG winning the first leg 3-1 but going out on goal difference after losing 2-0 at Stamford Bridge.

The goalscorers for Chelsea were Andre Schurrle and Demba Ba who have both since left the club. It was a fascinating tactical battle between Jose Mourinho and Laurent Blanc and it produced two fiery encounters. David Luiz scored an own-goal in the blue of Chelsea and is now playing for PSG after his £50million transfer in the summer.

Chelsea are bidding to reach the last eight of the competition for the seventh time in nine years and are currently leading the Premiership by seven points. Talk of them being unbeatable has long since been put to rest with defeats at Newcastle and Tottenham and a humbling FA Cup exit at the hands of Bradford City. They have reached the final of the Capital One Cup but it is the league and this competition on which their season will ultimately be judged.

They went out to Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals last year and face a stern test against PSG. They have looked distinctly average without Diego Costa but managed to secure vital wins over Aston Villa and Everton in his enforced absence. Their top scorer received a three-match ban for stamping on an opponent in the Cup clash with Liverpool. He will return to the side on Tuesday and it will be fascinating to see him playing against Luiz.

I have been impressed by Juan Cuadrado so far and he looks the type of player to relish these big games. Mourinho may elect to rest Willian rather than play his two wingers in the first hour of this match against a strong PSG side.

Blanc’s team have not lost in 32 home matches in European competition but they have looked vulnerable in recent league games. They have been beaten at EA Guingamp and SC Bastia and let a 2-0 lead slip away against SM Caen last weekend. Nevertheless, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi give them plenty of attacking options. I can see this being a long night for the Blues and PSG look good value to grab a first-leg advantage.

The other Champions League match on Tuesday should go the way of Bayern Munich. The 2013 winners visit Shakhtar and are in red-hot form after winning 8-0 in the league. They should have too much class for their opponents and are worth considering in the goal and handicap markets.

PSG to beat Chelsea @7-4 Paddy Power

Bayern Munich (-1.0 handicap) to win @11-10 Paddy Power

Man City face Champions League exit

With two games remaining, Manchester City are bottom of group E and preparing for the visit of Bayern Munich on Tuesday night.

That is certainly not the scenario that Manuel Pellegrini would have had in mind when the draw was made. While most pundits would have made Bayern strong favourites to win the group, City were expected to beat Roma and CSKA Moscow in the battle for second place.

City were held to a draw by Roma in their opening group game before suffering a 1-0 defeat in Munich thanks to a late goal by Boateng. The real damage was done when they forfeited a two-goal lead in Moscow. They have struggled to achieve any consistency since that night in October, slumping to a home defeat against CSKA in the return fixture.

A hard-fought 2-1 win over Swansea at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday at least kept them within a respectable distance of Chelsea in the Premier League. Whether they showed enough to seriously worry Bayern Munich on Tuesday is open to question. The gulf between Premiership football and Champions League football is something that City are yet to cross. Two-time EPL winners but only once have they managed to go beyond the group stages in Europe and it is looking ominous again this season.

A full-strength City at their best would certainly have high expectations against a Bayern side that may be tempted to take their foot off the pedal with the group already won. However, City go into this match in patchy form and without Yaya Toure, David Silva and Fernandinho. There has been speculation that all is not well with Sergio Aguero and Stevan Jovetic but Pellegrini insists that both are fit to start on Tuesday night.

Bayern have won their first four matches, scoring eleven goals and conceding just one. They will the group irrespective of what happens in their final group games. Their recent record is not unlike Chelsea’s. They are unbeaten in 18 matches and scored seven against Roma earlier in the tournament. They have strikers of the calibre of Lewandowski, Robben and Muller available against a City defence that is far from secure.

Man City have no choice but to attack and that could play into the hands of the visitors. It should be an entertaining night but I can’t see Bayern coming away with less than a draw.

Correct score 1-1 @7-1 BetVictor

Correct score 2-2 @14-1 William Hill

Champions League Final Night 2013 – My Bets

I am so torn with this game as I think Bayern Munich are going to win this clash of the Germans at Wembley. But with this said both teams could cancel each other out and it could either finish in 90 minutes with a single goal or it could go to extra time and penlites. My betting action is going on the correct score and first goal scorer markets as I am backing the match to be over in 90 minutes and Bayer Munich to lift the European Champions League Cup.

The exciting thing about this weekend is that there is lots of sport on the TV which brings us all great betting opportunities. The Champions League Final is the highlight of the weekend, but there is also boxing right after the Champions League Final. This fight is between Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler and is going to prove to be a massive fight. It could go either way in this boxing match as Carl Froch has never been beaten in his home town of Nottingham but he is fighting in The O2 arena in London so he should have a home advantage against his opponent Mikkel Kessler from Denmark. But the story of a home advantage may not stack up for Froch as Kessler also has UK roots. His mother is English and he has a half brother who is English so Mikkel Kessler expects allot of UK support tonight at the O2.

Kessler beat Froch last time they meet in Denmark and now Froch is seeking revenge after his defeat. Froch is currently the holder of the IBF Super Middleweight title and Kessler is the current holder of the WBA World Super Middleweight title. So who ever wins this fight will walk away tonight with two World titles and allot of boxing pride.

Then tomorrow we have the big F1 race in Monaco where it looks like our home grown talent Lewis Hamilton could finish on the podium as long as his driving is good and the car performs. here is what I am betting on this weekend so follow if your fancy it or just keep you fingers crossed for me and the team here at Betcirca. Dont forget you also get a free £10 bet with Skybet when you join. Clcik the links on the right hand side of this website to join anyone of our approved bookmakers.

Robert Lewandowski and Borussia Dortmund to win 2-1 – 100/1 with William Hill

Robert Lewandowski last goal scorer and Bayern Munich to win 3-1 – 195/1 with William Hill

Correct score Bayern Munich 3-1 – 12/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score first and Bayern Munich to win 3-1 – 100/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score first and Bayern Munich win 3-2 – 150/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score anytime and Bayern Munich to win 8/1 with Paddy Power

Carl Froch Method of Victory KO/TKO @ 9/4 and Bayern Munich @ 4/5 the double is 4.85 double with Paddy Power

I have done a cheeky cover with Borussia Dortmund to win on penalties 12/1 with William Hill

I have also done a cheeky cover with Bayern Munich to win on penalties 12/1 with William Hill

Monaco Grand Prix Lewis Hamilton @ 10/3
Champion League Final Robert Lewandowski to score in 90 minutes and Borussia Dortmund to win the match @ 6/1
Scottish FA Cup Hibernian v Celtic – Hampden Park Celtic @ 2/5
Boxing Carl Froch V Mikkel Kessler Carl Froch @ 4/9

The four fold pays £613.41 for a £10 stake. with Paddy Power

have a great weekend punting.