Champions League Preview – April 21st

The Champions League semi-finalists are to be decided this week. On Tuesday night, Barcelona should ease past PSG with a comfortable 3-1 lead from the away leg but Bayern Munich face an uphill struggle to reach the last four.

The Germans went into the away leg missing several key players and were beaten 3-1. They welcome back Xabi Alonso, Thiago Alcântara, Jérôme Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm for the return leg. They will still be without Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and that could be vital. Despite their fine display in the first leg, Porto can still be backed at close to even money to go through.

I don’t there are any Premiership sides that would be odds-on to overturn such a deficit but Bayern are dominant in the Bundesliga. They are twelve points clear of Wolfsburg and were elevated to Champions League favourites after beating Shakhtar 7-0. Pep Guardiola’s side have a true Champions League pedigree but Porto may still be under-estimated. Julen Lopetegui’s side can be dangerous on the break with Jackson Martinez and Ricardo Quaresma and they could be the value bet.

Barcelona have a much easier task at home to PSG after running rings around them in Paris. In fact, Luis Suarez did precisely that to David Luiz on two occasions. The £50million former Chelsea centre-back must have thought his nightmare was over after that World Cup humiliation against Germany. With Thiago Silva out through injury, Luiz could be left exposed on Tuesday night and it would be no surprise to see Barcelona ease to a comfortable victory.

The French champions do have Zlatan Ibrahimovic back in the side but they were very fortunate to get past a lack-lustre Chelsea in the last round and they simply don’t look good enough. Laurent Blanc has to try to formulate a plan for this match but I cannot see them going out to attack. I believe that they will try to stay in the tie in the first half before searching for a lifeline goal after the break. Barring a sending-off for the home side, this looks like a formality for the Spaniards to book their place in the last four.

Porto to qualify @10-11 Coral

Ricardo Quaresma to score at any time @7-1 Betfair

Luis Suarez to score and Barcelona win @6-4 Paddy Power

Lionel Messi to score and Barcelona win @10-11 Ladbrokes

Barcelona to win by 2 goals @10-3 Bet365

Champions League – Quarter-final draw and odds update

In our September Champions League preview we recommended Atletico Madrid (25-1) and PSG (16-1) as the value bets in this season’s competition. Both sides have made it safely through to the last eight but the draw has not been kind.

Atletico Madrid gave us a tremendous run for  our money last season in reaching the final before losing in extra-time to rivals Real. They face Ronaldo and co again in the two-legged quarter-final but will be more than hopeful of causing an upset this time.

Diego Simeone’s side have beaten the reigning champions twice in the league and knocked them out of the Copa del Rey this season. That surely entitles them to some respect here but the bookmakers have them at a top price 18-1 to lift the trophy. Anyone who saw Real Madrid scrape past Roberto di Matteo’s Schalke in that astonishing second leg match will regard the champions as suspect. Their price has eased to 9-2 third favourite in the wake of that display and a defeat against Barcelona at the weekend has dented their domestic league prospects.

Ronaldo has already dragged them through a few tricky matches this season and he will be the main threat to Atletico but it should be a fascinating tie.

PSG were extremely fortunate to get past Chelsea who were guilty of sitting back against ten men in the hope of seeing out time. I am always happy to praise Jose Mourinho for his tactical genius but he failed to galvanise his troops that day. Credit to PSG for hanging on long enough to get a result but I can see why they are a longer price now than they were back in September.

As well as their average form, there is the little matter of Barcelona to overcome in the last eight. The Spaniards saw off Man City and would have run up a cricket score but for Joe Hart’s brilliance between the posts.

Bayern Munich have emerged as the new favourites and they face Porto while Juventus face Arsenal’s conqueror’s, Monaco. The Gunners came close to turning around a 3-1 deficit and Monaco were on the ropes for almost 90 minutes. Few will be rushing out to take the Coral price of 80-1. Juventus are in to 8-1 after thrashing Borussia Dortmund and could be this year’s surprise package.

Best odds

Bayern Munich 13-8 Ladbrokes

Barcelona 28-11 Unibet

Real Madrid 9-2 Ladbrokes

Juventus 8-1 Ladbrokes

Atletico Madrid 18-1 Boylesports

PSG 20-1 Paddy Power

Porto 80-1 Coral

Monaco 80-1 Coral

1/3 odds, 1,2

Quarter-finals to be played April 14th, 15th, 21st, 22nd

Champions League – Barcelona v Man City Preview

Manchester City slumped to a shock 1-0 defeat at Burnley at the weekend to leave themselves trailing Chelsea by six points. The London club still have a game in hand, although neither side have been impressive in recent weeks. Arsenal, Man United and Liverpool have all gained ground and are now breathing down City’s neck in the race for Champions League qualification next season.

Chelsea were knocked out of the Champions League by PSG on away goals last week and City could follow them out of the exit door when they face Barcelona on Wednesday night. City lost the home leg 2-1 but it could easily have been much worse. Gael Clichy’s red card left them a man short for the third successive time against the Spaniards and a third goal looked inevitable. Joe Hart saved Lionel Messi’s penalty but the Argentine should still have put away the rebound.

3-1 would have left City on the brink but they have been given a lifeline and will surely adopt a more positive approach this time. Rather like Chelsea against PSG, City appeared to be almost paralysed by fear and were spectators for much of the game as Barcelona ran rings around them. If the same City turns up on Wednesday, they will surely be well beaten. The home side have Suarez, Messi and Neymar in their line-up, all eager to get on the score sheet.

With the possible exceptions of Aguero and Silva, City’s star players have fallen short in recent months and they are running out of opportunities. I fear that City’s season could get worse before it starts to get better.

The night’s other tie looks a good deal less one-sided with Juventus holding a 2-1 lead against Borussia Dortmund. The Italians were not particularly impressive in Turin and the Germans grabbed a vital away goal. They know that a 1-0 win would be sufficient to go into the last eight but I cannot quite see them holding out for 90 minutes.

Former Premiership striker Carlos Tevez has scored 21 goals this season and Paul Pogba is apparently being pursued by Manchester United and Chelsea. They will miss the experience of Andrea Pirlo in midfield due to injury but could just sneak a draw and go through.

Borussia Dortmund v Juventus DRAW @5-2 Boylesports

Borussia Dortmund 1 Juventus 1 @6-1 Paddy Power

Barcelona 3 Man City 0 @21-2 BetVictor

Lionel Messi to score and Barcelona win @4-5 SkyBet

Luis Suarez to score and Barcelona win @6-4 Ladbrokes

Champions League Preview 24th February

Chelsea managed to cling on to a 1-1 draw at PSG last week in the Champions League and it is now the turn of Premiership rivals Man City to re-start their European campaign.

City’s inexperience in Europe has cost them dearly in previous seasons but they managed to qualify from the group stages despite a miserable start to their campaign. Manuel Pellegrini will have emphasised the need for discipline to his players after City finished both legs of last season’s clash with Barcelona a man short.

A 5-0 win over Newcastle helped City close to within five points of Chelsea in the title race and will have given them the perfect tonic for Tuesday night’s game.  The return of Yaya Toure from the African Cup of Nations was a key factor in Saturday’s impressive victory but he is suspended from this match. They do at least have a fit front-line with Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko both on the mark against Newcastle and new signing Wilfried Bony waiting in the wings.

Barcelona are obviously not short of talent themselves with the daunting prospect of Messi, Neymar and Suarez in a side that has scored 22 goals in their last five away games. A shock 1-0 defeat to Malaga at the weekend dented their La Liga hopes but it was surely no more than a blip.

In Tuesday’s other game, Juventus meet Borussia Dortmund in Turin, a repeat of the 1997 UEFA Champions League final. Massimiliano Allegri’s team are unbeaten in ten home games in Europe and 45 in all competitions. Paul Pogba has been in outstanding form and they look a good bet to take a decisive advantage from the first leg.

Dortmund finished above Arsenal in Group D but got off to a terrible start in the Bundesliga. Two successive victories have helped them out of the relegation zone but it is hardly Champions League form.

There are plenty of special offers floating about on this one. Bet365 are a free in-play bet of up to £50 on the game for anyone betting pre-match. This is only available to customers in the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

New customers to Betfair can have odds of 5-1 about a Barcelona victory or 9-1 if you fancy Man City to triumph in the first leg. This applies up to a maximum stake of £10. New Unibet customers can have 6-1 against a City victory up to £10.

Best Bet

Juventus to beat Dortmund @11-10 Paddy Power