If you’re a Burnley fan, or just a canny punter looking for a bargain bet, you may be prepping yourself for a tough match on Sunday. Heading to Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium is never fun for any team, so when you’re a relatively small club like Burnley, this sort of fixture is always going to be tough.
However, just before you hold your hands up in despair, it’s worth noting that Burnley’s record against the Gunners isn’t that bad. In fact, since the two clubs first locked horns in 1896, Burnley has won 38 games, drawn 21 and lost 48. The optimistic among you will have already spotted that these stats mean Burnley have come away with at least a point on more occasions than they haven’t.
Now, it’s fair to say that most of the positive results were recorded a few years ago (quite a few in some cases) and in recent times the Clarets haven’t fared as well. In fact, the last five meetings between the two clubs have all gone Arsenal’s way. With this being the case, the question for all betting bods then becomes: can Burnley roll back the clock and produce a vintage performance on January 22, or will Arsenal reconfirm their modern superiority?
Before we answer that question, let’s take a quick look at the outright betting markets. As it stands, Arsenal will start the game as favourites according to Sun Bets. With the home side a commanding 2/11 and the visitors way out of town at 12/1, the odds would suggest this match is only going to go one way. However, despite the betting markets not favouring the northern side, Sean Dyche’s men are far from pushovers.
Yes, Turf Moor has been something of a fortress and provided the majority of Burnley’s best performances this season, but the club’s away form hasn’t been terrible. In fact, over the last five games, Burnley has only lost twice to Tottenham away (2-1) and Manchester City away (2-1). Narrow losses to two of the top sides in the country on their home patches are nothing to be ashamed of.
Of course, prior form against top competition on the road doesn’t necessarily mean Dyche and his men can do the same against Arsenal. But, if we’re going to put our necks on the line, at least one goal for Burnley isn’t out of the question. Now, stopping the likes of Ozil and Giroud from scoring two or more won’t be easy, but the least we can expect is Burnley to bring the pressure.
From a betting perspective, Paddy Power’s 4/9 on over 2.5 goals isn’t a bad shout, but Joey Barton to score anytime at 13/2 with Coral looks to be the value bet of the day. With a goal against Southampton in the side’s last Premier League outing, Barton proved that he’s not quite done with top flight football just yet.
Yes, there was a deflection on the free-kick, but his effort in the middle of the park throughout the game was impressive (especially at 34-years-old) and that could earn him an opportunity at the Emirates. However, if we accept Barton to score anytime as a punt with some value, then a “banker” bet for this match looks something like Arsenal to win 2-1. Sun Bets currently has that result priced at 17/2, while the similar (and possibly more likely) 2-0 is 11/2.
Overall, it’s hard to see passed Arsenal in this one. With a 4-0 win last time out against Swansea, Arsene Wenger’s men are certainly fighting hard for second place this season. This sort of form, combined with previous results and a clear gap in quality, should see Arsenal secure a comfortable win. The question, on this occasion, is by how many goals.