Tag: Elm Park

Golden Horn Dante victory sparks Derby debate

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The Dante Stakes at York on Thursday was meant to finally provide a clear-cut favourite for the Epsom Derby. The race featured ante-post favourite Jack Hobbs, albeit only the winner of a Sandown handicap on his previous start, as well as Group 1 winner Elm Park and the Aidan O’Brien-trained John F Kennedy.

In the event, all three were beaten by a horse not entered for the Derby in Golden Horn. He is a stable companion of Jack Hobbs and trainer John Gosden had hinted that he felt that his form was superior to that of the favourite. There is a £75,000 fee for supplementing for Epsom, not usually a barrier to those owners fortunate enough to possess a serious Derby contender.

The problem is that Anthony Oppenheimer has always believed that Golden Horn would not stay beyond a mile and a quarter. Both he and Gosden were besieged by the media after the race in an effort to nail down their Epsom plans. Instead, the French Derby over a the Dante distance remains a real possibility. To add to the confusion, Jack Hobbs may even be re-directed to Royal Ascot with Gosden clearly feeling that he still has a lot to learn about racing.

The vibes were that Oppenheimer would listen to Gosden’s opinion and the trainer seemed to be leaning towards a tilt at the Derby, whilst making it clear that it was not his decision to make. Bookmakers initially offered 5-1 about Golden Horn but only 6-4 with a run. By late evening, he was only 3-1 or 15-8 with Betfair with a run.

Elm Park looked to be going well when he took up the running in the home straight but he started to hang and dropped away to finish third. It may have been a combination of fitness and feeling the faster ground but trainer Andrew Balding was happy enough and Epsom is the next stop. I don’t think that there will be a stampede to take the 8-1 on offer about him and I would worry if the going is quick on Derby day.

Aidan O’Brien ruled out the prospect of running 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles who will definitely stay in Ireland for their Guineas instead. Zawraq, winner of the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, is the only other horse quoted in single figures. If Golden Horn is supplemented, he could start a very short priced favourite. If he heads to France instead, we may see one of the most open Derby’s in recent memory.

York Preview – Thursday 14th May

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Betcirca followers were up 25 points to level stakes on Wednesday’s sports betting advice. Mahsoob (7-2) started the ball rolling at York and was followed by Algar Lad (16-1). The Champions League semi-final second leg between Real Madrid and Juventus yielded a further ten points profit after we correctly forecast the score line, the first goal scorer and the number of goals.

Thursday’s racing at York is all about the Dante Stakes, a race which looks certain to spark a major shake-up in the Epsom Derby betting. I have been scratching my head to think of an occasion when a handicap winner was made Derby favourite and I have so far failed to come up with one. Even trainer John Gosden has described it as “a bit silly” but we will know how silly after the Dante. Jack Hobbs is the horse in question and he is joined by stable companion Golden Horn.

Aidan O’Brien’s John F Kennedy ran too badly to be true last time but does not carry maximum stable confidence and I’m sticking with the Group 1 form of Elm Park. I followed him as a two-year-old and missing the Guineas due to the ground may have been a blessing in disguise.

After solving the conundrum of the six-furlong sprint on Wednesday I have to take a stab at Thursday’s five furlong dash. David O’Meara sounded certain that he would not be running Algar Lad again so I’m going for Desert Law who was not far behind him at Ripon. Unlike many of these, he is better at five furlongs than six.

Bragging is difficult to oppose having won at Newmarket despite looking likely to need the race. That was her first race beyond a mile and she was finishing strongly so could be quite a force over ten furlongs. Several of her rivals would prefer more cut in the ground and/or a longer trip.

David O’Meara could strike in another competitive handicap with Fort Bastion. He went for a repeat win in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but never saw daylight all the way up the straight, finishing on a tight rein. He can reverse the form with runner-up Off Art who is lightly raced and feared most.

Tendu looks solid in the sprint at 4.20 after chasing home Limato at Ascot. The winner is surely going to take high honours in the sprinting division this season. Moscato is a typically progressive Sir Mark Prescott stayer and can extend his sequence to five in the last.

Desert Law 2.10 @14-1 William Hill

Bragging 2.40 @5-2 Paddy Power

Elm Park 3.15 @4-1 Paddy Power

Fort Bastion 3.45 @8-1 Betfair

Tendu 4.20 @5-4 Ladbrokes

Moscato 5.20 @11-4 Ladbrokes

Elm Park stars in 310-1 treble for Betcirca

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Andrew Balding’s Elm Park is a top price 20-1 for next season’s Epsom Derby after making all to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday.

The racecard had looked tricky beforehand with the soft ground and large fields but three of our four selections won at accumulative odds of 310-1. The first to come home in front was Code Red in the Listed Doncaster Stakes for William Muir.

I felt that the favourite Portamento might be vulnerable in the ground and had been impressed by Code Red’s four-length win in a minor race at Nottingham recently. Early odds of 11-1 were soon snapped up and he returned the 11-2 winner after catching the Godolphin runner inside the final furlong.

On a day when trainer Richard Fahey had four winners, it was his Emerahldz that let us down in the mile and half handicap, fading into seventh behind 14-1 stable companion Latenightrequest. The set-back proved to be temporary as our old friend Dungannon landed our 8-1 tip in the sprint against 18 rivals. I must have written as much about this gelding as I have about any flat racer in recent years and he gave us another pay day in beating Ajjaadd and Demora quite comfortably.

The final leg was his stable mate Elm Park, already a favourite of mine after tipping him successfully in his previous two races. He never looked in any trouble as he led from start to finish to beat Aloft and Celestial Path. The bookmakers quoted odds varying between 10-1 and 20-1 and I have to say that the latter is tempting.

As I mentioned in my Saturday preview, the Racing Post Trophy has a fine record for producing Derby winners with Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot the latest in a long line of dual winners. Kingston Hill won this race impressively a year ago and went on to finish second in the Derby before winning the St Leger for Roger Varian.

Elm Park does not look anything other than a middle distance horse in the making and I would be very surprised if Balding contemplated a tilt at the 2000 Guineas. I am happy to re-invest a little of Saturday’s profits on the colt for the Derby. Our 20-1 Melbourne Cup tip Mutual Regard is now a best price of 12-1 and we also have the Breeders’ Cup to look forward to.

Elm Park 2015 Epsom Derby @20-1 Ladbrokes

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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It is Racing Post Trophy day at Doncaster on Saturday with Elm Park bidding to underline his claims for next season’s Derby.

The race, formerly known as the Futurity Stakes, has been a great guide to the classics over the years. The history of the race is littered with names like Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot. The last two on that list were trained by Aidan O’Brien who also saddled St Nicholas Abbey to win this race. He is represented by Jacobean and Aloft, neither of who appear to have sufficient form to win this.

Jacobean ran on to take second on his debut while Aloft won narrowly at Newmarket. Andrew Balding’s Elm Park has 9lbs in hand on official figures following his win in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. Things did not go entirely smoothly that day as he was bumped leaving the stalls and looked in trouble two furlongs out. Perhaps the ground was a little quick for him and he has already shown that he can handle the soft when powering home at Newbury. Having tipped him at Salisbury and Newmarket, I cannot desert him here.

The going was very testing on Friday with some two-year-olds stopping to almost a walk in the early maiden races. Andrew Balding could also be on target in the sprint with our old friend Dungannon. He helped us out at Ascot last time when winning by a short-head in similar ground and he bids to win this race for the second year in succession.

He is only 1lb higher in the ratings and my main concern is his low draw. The runners may favour the stands side if the going becomes too testing and that would leave Dungannon on wrong side.

More favourably drawn is South African import Counter Ridge, trained by Marco Botti. She almost belied of odds of 66-1 when runner-up here last month and is a bit of an unknown quantity if you’re looking for a lively outsider.

I will also be looking for some each-way value in the 2.10 race. Portamento won an egg-and-spoon race last time and looks vulnerable. Nothing went right for Manofmanytalents last time out at York and he did well to finish as close as he did behind Mattmu. However, I am not entirely convinced that he will like this ground and will side with easy Nottingham winner Code Red.

Knife Point has solid form in the mile and a quarter handicap for Hugo Palmer. He finished fourth to shock winner Farquhar at Newmarket but it is anybody’s guess whether he will handle the ground. That won’t be a concern for Emerahldz who has won on heavy at Beverley for Richard Fahey.

Code Red 2.10 @11-1 BetVictor

Emerahldz 2.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Dungannon 3.15 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Elm Park 3.50 @15-8 Bet365

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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It’s Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket and the result of the consolation race on Friday indicated that there is no clear draw bias. That does not really help us with 35 runners to sort through but I’ve picked out a couple for each-way interest.

Niceofyoutotellme won at Newmarket in the spring for Ralph Beckett, his first start since running a dismal race in the consolation race at the corresponding meeting. That was his first run in a hood and the headgear was left on at Ascot in June when he ran a fair race to finish ninth in the Royal Hunt Cup. He was held up towards the rear at Goodwood last time and was never likely to get involved but a couple of months off should have freshened him up for this race.

My second selection is Buckstay who is well weighted with Extremity on Goodwood form. He was beaten a short-head by that horse over a mile trying to concede 10lbs in July and is now weighted to receive 1lb from the Hugo Palmer runner. There is a huge disparity in the odds for the duo, probably because of Buckstay’s modest third last time at Kempton. Maxime Guyon is an interesting booking for Peter Chapple-Hyam’s runner.

There appears to be plenty of confidence behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Sandy Cay in the opening nursery but I am sticking with Rosalie Bonheur after her game win at Salisbury. She was never travelling better than at the finish of that seven-furlong contest and she can complete a hat-trick for Clive Cox.

It has been a sad week for the Balding family with the passing of legendary National Hunt trainer Toby. He was no mean trainer on the flat either and was equally adept at educating jockeys, as Tony McCoy will testify. I am hoping that the family will have cause for minor celebration with the promising Elm Park in the Royal Lodge, although Nafaqa is the obvious threat. His Doncaster form looks smart after Toocoolforschool won the Mill Reef so easily last week.

Tiggy Wiggy should win the Cheveley Park but is not great value after a long season. Windshear ran a lifeless race at Newmarket today for the Hannon team after a similarly exhausting campaign.

There is a typically competitive card over at Haydock and I must give Chilworth Icon a mention in the big sprint. I tipped him for the Portland Handicap recently and he was a fast-finishing fifth. I am a bit worried that this five furlongs will be on the sharp side but he’s in great form and should go well at a good price.

Rosalie Bonheur 2.0 Newmarket @5-1 Paddy Power

Elm Park 2.35 Newmarket @3-1 BetVictor

Tiggy Wiggy 3.10 Newmarket @11-10 Bet365

Niceofyoutotellme 3.50 Newmarket @16-1 William Hill (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Buckstay 3.50 Newmarket @33-1 Ladbrokes (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5)

Chilworth Icon 4.10 Haydock @14-1 Bet365 (each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4)