Joshua vs. Molina: One Punch vs. Sustained Power

We all know that Anthony Joshua has the power to put anyone away with a single punch, but Eric Molina believes he can upset the odds with his own secret shot. In the final pre-fight press conference between the two fighters, Molina was respectful of Joshua but issued a stern warning to those who have doubted him. Stating explicitly that he’s been training for one specific punch, one perceived weakness in Joshua’s game that he is going to exploit on December 10, Molina says he’s ready to take the IBF heavyweight title home.

For his part, Joshua was calm during the press conference and offered little insight into his own strategy. In fact, as he’s so often done, he explained that he isn’t simply training for the here and now. While Molina may have been laser-focused on one move for Joshua, the man himself is training to become the perfect fighter. Whether it’s now or in five fights time, Joshua has continued to build a complete skill set under trainer Rob McCracken and this time out he may well look like an improved version of his former self.

Not Even a Puncher’s Chance for Molina

So, when it comes to the odds makers, how does the one shot optimism of Molina stack up against the cool, calculated strategy of Joshua? Well, to put it politely, those in charge of the betting lines don’t even think Molina has a puncher’s chance of winning. Regardless of whether he possesses the kryptonite shot or not, the bookies can’t see this one going to the American.

Sun Bets and Coral have similar lines at 3/100 and 1/33 respectively, while Paddy Power is taking an even more pessimistic view of Molina’s chances with a Joshua win price of 1/50. Of course, stranger things have happened in boxing and there’s every chance Molina could cause an upset. In fact, those that are quick to dismiss his chances seem to forget that he’s been in with the man many consider the best heavyweight in the world, Deontay Wilder.

Although he eventually lost the fight, Molina rocked Wilder with a thumping left hook in the third. Not only that, but it took Wilder until the ninth to finally see off his opponent. This sort of resilience not only led Wilder to describe Molina as “willing and determined” enough to give Joshua problems, but it could make him a dark horse in this one.

There’s Some Value in a Molina Gamble

While the chances of a Molina win are slim, an early shot could rattle Joshua. If that’s your call, 14/1 on a Molina win with Paddy Power looks to be the best value out there at the moment. If you want to be a bit more specific, Molina in the third (the same round he rocked Wilder) is currently 100/1 at Sun Bets.

When all is said and done, however, it’s hard to back a man who has admitted he only has one way to win. While that may just be talk ahead of the fight, Molina isn’t known for his bravado. Although we know he has a toolbox full of tricks gathered through years of experience, he is in danger of relying on plan A without having a plan B.

Expect a Mid-Fight Finish

For that reason alone it’s tough to see how Joshua loses this one. Many feel he could put his opponent away early with a few well-placed shots, but it’s likely Joshua knows it will take a bit more to get the job done and leave something back. For those interested in round betting, Coral’s over bet on 4.5 rounds at 11/8 looks to have some value. Beyond that, Joshua to win in Round 6 at 10/1 could be the tastiest bet of the night.

Yes, there’s a very strong chance this fight could be over inside of three, but if Joshua continues to display the maturity he’s shown in recent fights, it will go longer. Can Molina last nine rounds with a power puncher like Joshua as he did against Wilder? Probably not, but there’s no reason he couldn’t still be in there by the sixth. If that’s the case, we can expect a mid-fight finish from Joshua. But, as Molina keeps telling us, we shouldn’t be shocked if things don’t go the way we expect.

Saturday night MMA preview

UFC: What to look for and why you need to watch

Another day, another card, another Octagon in another city. Phoenix is now host to two major players in the heavyweight division in former champion Junior Dos Santos come up against someone who could be the brightest prospect in the heavy division, Stipe Miocic.

Why should you watch?

When the UFC revealed they signed a multi-year, muti-million dollar deal with FOX, it was a sign that MMA had achieved a step towards the sport’s legitimacy. Now, 12 shows on the major network have passed and now the worry is about keeping the fan’s interested. This is why you should watch. FOX cards are always stacked with great fighters who put on great shows.

We see the return of Stefan Struve from a horror illness that nearly ended his career. The tallest UFC fighter on the books was diagnosed with an enlarged heart and a leaking valve following his last KO loss to Mark Hunt. His first return in July saw him collapse in the dressing room from an elevated heart rate merely hours before he stepped into the Octagon leaving many to ponder if they will ever see him again. But here we are! Pitted against the falling star of Alistair Overeem should provide a great fight as they are both searching for a spark in a weak division. We also see the return of Nate Diaz following his self-imposed lay-off. A cocky fighter who has constantly backed his mouth up, Diaz takes on Rafael dos Anjos who could potentially be fighting for a spot in the cages vs. the Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis.

Down in the prelims you are treated to the debuts of two highly skilled fighters. Claudia Gadelha is an undefeated Brazilian who is a part of the newly formed UFC Womens Strawweight division, and many believe she is destined to win the belt. She takes on undefeated Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the right to take on the newly crowned champion, Carla Esparza. We also get treated to (finally, I might add), to one of the hottest prospects in the lighter weight classes in Olympic Gold Medalist Henry Cejudo. A weigh-in blunder prevented his previous fight from happening, and after an ultimatum from Dana White telling him to move up in weight or fight somewhere else has him taking on Dustin Kimura in a Bantamweight match-up early on.

Upset Alerts.

In a difficult card to pick some good bets, I think there are that offer the best chance for an upset!

Henry Cejudo (2/5 Skybet) vs. Dustin Kimura (15/8 Skybet)

Okay, so Cejudo is a great prospect, but as a first UFC fight I am really not sure if this is a great matchup. Kimura is a submission expert and with Cejudo’s wrestling pedigree, this fight is destined to get to the ground. Kimura is very capable off his back and his a multitude of weapons to lean on if he is pushed to that. If this goes the distance, Cejudo will win but given the opportunity I think Kimura can snatch an upset by submitting the much revered prospect.

Gabriel Gonzaga (5/6 Paddy Power) vs Matt Mitrione (11/10 Paddy Power)

This fight will end early. It has to. Because if it doesn’t, it will be about the worst fight of the night. Mitrione’s athleticism is definitely a factor here, but at 36 he is still a “fresh” fighter with only three years of experience under his belt. Gonzaga on the other hand feels like he has been around forever. For that reason, the discussion of Mitrione improving as a fighter could be a trivial one as he seems to be a bit over the natural age for a fighter in their prime. His last fight against Brendan Schaub was terrible and Mitrione was taken down and submitted in a heartbeat. Gonzaga has better chops on the ground then Schaub so let’s see if history repeats itself.

Alistair Overeem (4/9 Paddy power) vs. Stefan Struve (9/4 Paddy power)

Both of these fighters have had some questions about their chins recently. In nearly two years since he was meant to be the next big thing in the heavyweight division (since he literally is one of the biggest THINGS in the heavyweight division), Overeem has gone 1-3 and has not looked the fearsome striker that he was before he entered the UFC. I have less confidence in this one happening then the other two above, but purely because it seems that Overeem’s hands seem to forget to protect his face sometimes, he is subject to a KO at any point. Struve’s chin is also a bit subject which may cause some people to shy away from backing him, but his long arms and legs can prove difficult in defending sometimes!

Champions League Final Night 2013 – My Bets

I am so torn with this game as I think Bayern Munich are going to win this clash of the Germans at Wembley. But with this said both teams could cancel each other out and it could either finish in 90 minutes with a single goal or it could go to extra time and penlites. My betting action is going on the correct score and first goal scorer markets as I am backing the match to be over in 90 minutes and Bayer Munich to lift the European Champions League Cup.

The exciting thing about this weekend is that there is lots of sport on the TV which brings us all great betting opportunities. The Champions League Final is the highlight of the weekend, but there is also boxing right after the Champions League Final. This fight is between Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler and is going to prove to be a massive fight. It could go either way in this boxing match as Carl Froch has never been beaten in his home town of Nottingham but he is fighting in The O2 arena in London so he should have a home advantage against his opponent Mikkel Kessler from Denmark. But the story of a home advantage may not stack up for Froch as Kessler also has UK roots. His mother is English and he has a half brother who is English so Mikkel Kessler expects allot of UK support tonight at the O2.

Kessler beat Froch last time they meet in Denmark and now Froch is seeking revenge after his defeat. Froch is currently the holder of the IBF Super Middleweight title and Kessler is the current holder of the WBA World Super Middleweight title. So who ever wins this fight will walk away tonight with two World titles and allot of boxing pride.

Then tomorrow we have the big F1 race in Monaco where it looks like our home grown talent Lewis Hamilton could finish on the podium as long as his driving is good and the car performs. here is what I am betting on this weekend so follow if your fancy it or just keep you fingers crossed for me and the team here at Betcirca. Dont forget you also get a free £10 bet with Skybet when you join. Clcik the links on the right hand side of this website to join anyone of our approved bookmakers.

Robert Lewandowski and Borussia Dortmund to win 2-1 – 100/1 with William Hill

Robert Lewandowski last goal scorer and Bayern Munich to win 3-1 – 195/1 with William Hill

Correct score Bayern Munich 3-1 – 12/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score first and Bayern Munich to win 3-1 – 100/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score first and Bayern Munich win 3-2 – 150/1 with Paddy Power

Robert Lewandowski to score anytime and Bayern Munich to win 8/1 with Paddy Power

Carl Froch Method of Victory KO/TKO @ 9/4 and Bayern Munich @ 4/5 the double is 4.85 double with Paddy Power

I have done a cheeky cover with Borussia Dortmund to win on penalties 12/1 with William Hill

I have also done a cheeky cover with Bayern Munich to win on penalties 12/1 with William Hill

Monaco Grand Prix Lewis Hamilton @ 10/3
Champion League Final Robert Lewandowski to score in 90 minutes and Borussia Dortmund to win the match @ 6/1
Scottish FA Cup Hibernian v Celtic – Hampden Park Celtic @ 2/5
Boxing Carl Froch V Mikkel Kessler Carl Froch @ 4/9

The four fold pays £613.41 for a £10 stake. with Paddy Power

have a great weekend punting.

Boxing weekly round up by Adam.

Reaction

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is the real deal. There were plenty of question marks over Canelo’s head going into Saturday’s unification showdown with Austin Trout, could he handle a genuine light middleweight? The answer was yes and Canelo looked good in doing so. The fight was closer than a couple of the judges made it (118-109, 116-111 and 115-112) but the right man won and Trout was refreshingly humble in defeat despite losing for the first time as a professional.

Canelo looked the more powerful throughout and scored an impressive knockdown in the seventh session although Trout recovered well. The bout did go back and forth throughout but it was Canelo who had overall control and cut off the ring well.

The Mexican sensation extended his record to 42 wins with just one draw and seemingly has the world at his feet now atop of the 154lbs division. Will Floyd Mayweather dare to take him on?

Tyson Fury made a dramatic winning debut on American soil when knocking Steve Cunningham clean out at Madison Square Garden Theater. Fury was more than a bit fired up for this one and met the equally eager Cunningham head on in the first round. The overly aggressive strategy lasted less than six minutes as the American floored Fury with an overhand right in the second. Fury didn’t look too shaken but still encounted some scary moments in the following rounds.

By the sixth session it was clear Fury’s power was beginning to dominate and Cunningham was slowing. Fury, with the help of his left forearm to set Cunningham up, landed a massive right hook and the American was out for the count. Fury and his team celebrated wildly and I won’t mention the post-fight singing from the big man.

He might not be the best heavyweight boxer on the planet but Fury is entertaining for sure.

Nathan Cleverly’s title defence against Robin Krasniqi was as expected – flashy at times, workmanlike at others and getting dragged into a brawl more often than needed. Two ringside judges had it a complete shutout for the Welshman who retained his WBO light heavyweight title without making the statement which was needed. No more mandatories for a while please.

Dereck Chisora returned on the Wembley Arena undercard and made hard work of getting rid of Argentine lump Hector Avila. Chisora is still right in the British heavyweight mix and could face Fury in a rematch sometime soon.

Up in Blackpool Brian Rose needed all 12 of the rounds to dispose of light middleweight veteran Joachim Alcine. The Canadian visitor frustrated Rose throughout the fight and used his experience to ‘old man’ Rose at times. It was another learning experience for the vastly improved Rose and I think he’ll need at least a couple more fights at this level before even thinking about a world title shot.

This Week’s Action

Amir Khan’s ‘homecoming’ isn’t quite how he and his American promoters planned it. Just under two years ago Khan owned two slices of the light welterweight title chaos, since then he’s lost twice (once via big knockout). A change in trainer followed with a comeback against an easy opponent in December. Now Golden Boy have decided to bring Khan back to the UK in a city where support for him certainly isn’t boiling over. Kell Brook is Sheffield’s boxing hero and Khan has made a concerted effort to bad mouth Brook over the last few years.

Khan is a strong favourite (best price 1/10) to beat Julio Diaz (15/2) and should get the job done with some ease. 33-year-old Diaz has lost seven times (five by KO) in 48 fights and couldn’t even get past world no.30 Shawn Porter in a 10 rounder last time out (split decision draw). The last time Diaz stepped up to anything near world level he was convincingly stopped by Kendall Holt in three rounds.

Khan’s undoubted speed will cause Diaz all sorts of trouble here and I see nothing other than a Khan KO. Likely to be more a culmination of damage rather than a stunning knockout, much like Khan’s last fight against Carlos Molina.

Fraudley Harrison, yes I still refuse to refer to him by his real name, features on the Sheffield undercard as he takes on Golden Boy knockout machine Deontay Wilder. Surprising, this is the first time in nearly three years Harrison goes into a fight NOT billed as his last chance saloon. In a way, this fight has gone under the radar but you have to give the 41-year-old credit for happily agreeing to fight what looks such a formidable test on paper.

Wilder’s record appears impressive, 27fights 25 KOs, not the type of guy you’d expect the often gunshy Harrison to be taking on. But Fraudley isn’t as daft as he often sounds and must fancy the job to springboard him towards his world title ‘destiny’. I’m no expert on American heavyweights (and nor do I want to be) but a man with a perfect record on paper is only ranked at eight by our friends at BoxRec so he must have faced some pretty ordinary opponents in his five year career. And Wilder is obviously not a big ticket seller if Golden Boy are sending him to sunny Sheffield to face the bloke who could only land one punch on David Haye.

As you’d expect, Wilder is a big favourite with the bookies at 1/6 with the KO at just 1/4. Harrison is a 6/1 shot for the win and 8/1 to let his destructive left hand detonate on Wilder’s untested chin. The form book no doubt points to a Wilder KO win but Harrison is arguably on a career high and would love to upset the American visitor. Hard to find a bet here with Wilder such a strong favourite.

Martin Murray faces a mammoth task in Buenos Aires on Saturday. Fighting middleweight number one Sergio Martinez in his backyard is possibly the toughest test an English boxer has ever faced. There’s not many divisions in world boxing where fans and experts agree on a single top dog but the middleweight division is one, Sergio Martinez is the best 160lbs fighter on the planet and has been for a couple of years.

Martinez hasn’t fought in his native Argentina for 11 years and a national hero he very much is. Even Lionel Messi couldn’t beat him in a vote for Argentine sports personality of the year in 2012.

Make no mistake, Murray is going to need a miracle to win on the scorecards here and a Murray KO win looks similarly unlikely – Martinez hasn’t been stopped in 13 years and Murray isn’t a knockout artist by any means.

Martinez put on a boxing master class for 11 rounds against Julio Chavez Jnr in late 2012 before catching a big shot in the last round and dramatically visiting the canvas. The 38-year-old managed to hold on and later had knee surgery. Martinez looks after himself away from the ring but you have to wonder when Father Time will catch up with him. I expect Murray to hear the final bell on Saturday night but can’t see him winning seven rounds in front of 50,000+ Argentines. Murray has an orthodox style and sticks to a game plan well, as he showed against Felix Sturm in December 2010, and could control some of the action from centre ring whilst the unpredictable Martinez creates angles on the outside. There’s no reason to question Murray’s chin at this stage so I’m somewhat surprised to find Martinez at 2/1 to score a points win with little value in the outrights at 1/6 Martinez and 1/5 Murray.

You can be sure Amir Khan will be staying up late on Saturday night to watch light welterweight rival Danny Garcia take on former foe Zab Judah with Garcia’s WBC and WBA titles on the line. In an absolutely absurd arrangement, Golden Boy plan to match the winner of this with the winner of Lucas Matthysse Lamont Peterson for the right to face non-title holder Khan.

If Judah was six or seven years younger I’d be backing him heavily to win this fight. I still maintain Garcia will be outboxed one day soon but Judah no longer has the youth and speed to perform as he once could. Funnily enough, the aforementioned Khan put in a career best performance against Judah in 2011 and completely dominated him en route to a fifth round stoppage. Since then Judah has only fought once and hardly deserves another title shot in a hot division.

I get the feeling this is one last payday for Judah and it’s no surprise to see Garcia as a 2/11 favourite. 4/9 for the Garcia KO is plenty short enough but if that potent left hook lands it’ll be game (and career) over for 35-year-old Judah. Garcia will struggle to nail down Judah early doors as the veteran floats about the ring so looking at a second half stoppage for ‘Swift’ looks the way forward here at 13/5.

The News

Matchroom have made yet another big name signing. They get a mention in this section most weeks and this edition is no different after Olympic gold medalist Luke Campbell put pen to paper on a professional contract. Campbell is a genuinely big draw in his native Hull and will top the bill in his home town in early July. Incredibly the debutant will be fighting in an open air stadium – that doesn’t often happen.

Kell Brook looks set to feature on the undercard in a low key contest to keep him ticking over before potential welterweight title fights later in the year.

The Bet

I’m pleasantly surprised see the Sergio Martinez points win on offer at 2/1 and this is where I’ll be getting involved this weekend.

Of the rest a Danny Garcia stoppage rounds 7-12 looks the next best at 13/5.

Quote Of The Week

“We know what we need to do. He is a great fighter but he makes a lot of mistakes and we are looking to capitalise on them.”

Julio Diaz knows a win over Amir Khan will put him back in the title mix but history shows Diaz struggles at world level.